Author Topic: Star Citizen Analytics Project  (Read 67164 times)

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #45 on: August 30, 2017, 08:12:55 AM »
boviscopophobic has a new chart up.

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Current time-aligned sales chart. I've seen some complaints about chart readability and I agree with those criticisms, but fixing it would take more hand tweaking than I feel like bothering with for a one-off forum post. Gamescom 2017 has now fallen behind Gamescom 2016 and I expect the gap to widen further over the coming days.



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The big success of Gamescom 2016 was in bringing in new accounts and presumably gaining a healthy chunk of new paying citizens in the process. Gamescom 2017 is barely producing a bump in signups versus any other random concept sale, such as the Nox sale which I've included for comparison.



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Direct comparison of Gamescom 2017 versus Gamescom 2016...



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Yearly revenue. 2017 revenue is about to fall below 2016 revenue year on year, which of course means CIG will need even bigger Citcon/anniversary/holiday sales if they want to make up the difference.


Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #46 on: August 30, 2017, 06:34:35 PM »
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Posting now because this latest Australian tax sale cash grab will probably mess up tomorrow's numbers.

Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Motto

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #47 on: September 01, 2017, 07:20:29 AM »
So, the month of August now has passed. Including Gamescom and the special Aussie sale. What strikes me on the funding tracker is that sales for August are the same as for May. One wonders... I'd love to see the latest analysis.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #48 on: September 01, 2017, 09:44:51 AM »
So, the month of August now has passed. Including Gamescom and the special Aussie sale. What strikes me on the funding tracker is that sales for August are the same as for May. One wonders... I'd love to see the latest analysis.

The tracking is rubbish. We just don't know to what extent - yet.
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Backer42

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #49 on: September 01, 2017, 09:52:32 AM »
I think it's all rubbish: funding data, employee numbers, backer numbers, monthly reports, development schedule etc. There is no data published by CIG which is audited and can be trusted.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #50 on: September 01, 2017, 09:56:55 AM »
I think it's all rubbish: funding data, employee numbers, backer numbers, monthly reports, development schedule etc. There is no data published by CIG which is audited and can be trusted.

Agreed.
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #51 on: September 01, 2017, 10:04:54 AM »
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Australian tax dodge cash grab kept today from being a bloodbath. Some kind of Australian sales tax on digital goods is going up September 1st, so as a "favor" to Australian backers, CIG will allow them to purchase certain jpegs, which would otherwise only be offered at the anniversary sale, before the tax increase goes into effect.

Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #52 on: September 02, 2017, 08:13:52 AM »
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One might cynically surmise that the current subscriber flash sale (which is not the same as yesterday's Australian tax dodge sale) was introduced to push the eventual Gamescom 2017 total above the $2M mark.



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However, it still can't compete with Gamescom 2016.





Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #53 on: September 03, 2017, 10:05:37 AM »
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Three overlapping sales is the charm, it looks like they will be able to break $2M during the Gamescom sale period.



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GC2016 currently holds an $800K lead over GC2017



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What's that little upward jog at the end of the curve there? Could it be... yes, it's another probable completionist possibly followed by a Javelin! It's been a few months since we saw this type of activity.



Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Wiggleitjiggle

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #54 on: September 05, 2017, 12:10:17 PM »
Been following your site for a loooong time now, finally posting after I decided to send you an email Derek based off my findings comparing the increase in new citizens to the funding tracker that CIG updates themselves. Basically showing they earn virtually nothing through ship sales, and if their citizens tracker is known to be BS then they earned roughly 38-45%ish of what they actually claimed, probably less. I also found an interesting correlation between the total amount earned and the increases in citizens based on a simple line chart analysis and comparing the slopes, identical. I don't know how to post my findings on here so that's why I sent them to Derek, also so he can tell me if what I was looking at is BS. All data comes directly off their tracker

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #55 on: September 05, 2017, 12:56:35 PM »
Been following your site for a loooong time now, finally posting after I decided to send you an email Derek based off my findings comparing the increase in new citizens to the funding tracker that CIG updates themselves. Basically showing they earn virtually nothing through ship sales, and if their citizens tracker is known to be BS then they earned roughly 38-45%ish of what they actually claimed, probably less. I also found an interesting correlation between the total amount earned and the increases in citizens based on a simple line chart analysis and comparing the slopes, identical. I don't know how to post my findings on here so that's why I sent them to Derek, also so he can tell me if what I was looking at is BS. All data comes directly off their tracker

Hi. I received both emails. Will review and respond in a bit.
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #56 on: September 25, 2017, 02:53:26 PM »
Yeah, totally not suspicious. Like, at all.

Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #57 on: September 25, 2017, 02:55:16 PM »
The $160M game, with over 500K citizens, that nobody is playing. Don't worry though, the 20 mins of gameplay that the upcoming 3.0 "Baby Jesus Patch" promises, will fix everything.

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The interval covered by this report was Aug 14 to Aug 23

The average usage of the 2.6.3 EA modules is now struggling to stay above 40 concurrent players.

Star Marine: 16.9
Arena Commander: 20.2
Murray Cup: 3.0

Total: 40.1

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The interval covered by this report was Sep 13 through Sep 24

Star Marine: 16.5
Arena Commander: 23.4
Murray Cup: 3.0
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Backer42

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #58 on: September 25, 2017, 02:56:52 PM »
The average usage of the 2.6.3 EA modules is now struggling to stay above 40 concurrent players.
So that "MMO" can house all players within the current limits of the engine in the same instance. Great!

premiumnugz

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Re: Star Citizen Analytics Project
« Reply #59 on: September 25, 2017, 03:25:43 PM »
Where is this consistent money coming from? It can't be subscriptions surely. Even in the most optimistic scenario nobody is consistently buying that many ships anymore either.  :catstare:

 

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