Author Topic: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.  (Read 660359 times)

dsmart

  • Supreme Cmdr
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4909
    • Smart Speak Blog
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #165 on: December 11, 2016, 06:04:28 AM »
So over the weekend, this news broke, several outlets started writing about it; and I posted it on my Facebook page.

Remember that amazing video of the whale leaping out the gym floor and splashing down? Yeah, it was BS

What does this remind you of?

Quote
Quick guide to spotting non-existent tech

Seeing as we haven't had many of these non-existent tech companies bubble up, here's a quick guide to help people spot one in future. If Company X is doing any of these, it's time to become suspicious:

  • Refusing to give a launch date.
  • Refusing to talk about the tech, claiming confidentiality or trade secrets.
  • Using news of investments or hires as evidence of technological progress.
  • Promoting itself on a big stage rather than in a small room.
  • Offering a well-crafted message and vision but becoming immediately vague when pushed on actual details.
  • Offering "exclusive access" – with restrictions.
  • Confusing working hard with making progress.

Also...Magic Leap: When Reality Hits the Fan

Quote
Overall, I think it it is very clear that what they will actually make is only a fraction of he vision they have portrayed to the press. They may have wanted to do 50 megapixel equivalent foveated displays, use FSD as their display device, have 6 focus planes, or even (from Fortune July 12, 2016) ““light-field” technology essentially mimics the brain’s visual-perception mechanisms to create objects and even people who look and behave just the way they would in the real world, and interact with that world seamlessly.” But then, they have to build something that actually works and that people can afford to buy. Reality then hits the fan

Bombshell lawsuit reveals drama at Magic Leap, the secretive multibillion-dollar startup backed by Google

Quote
Court filings reveal new secrets about the company, including a west coast software team in disarray, insufficient hardware for testing, and a secret skunkworks team devoted to getting patents and designing new prototypes — before its first product has even hit the market.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2016, 06:23:06 AM by dsmart »
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Kyrt

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 176
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #166 on: December 11, 2016, 12:39:56 PM »
Indeed. I wrote an entire blog about the fact that the funding chart is bogus (I have irrefutable evidence; but on the advice of counsel, we opted not to make it public at this time) and designed to show financial health and interest in the project.

As I said, if they are lying...or engaging in creative accounting...about how much they've fund raised, that would throw an entirely different light on their actions.

And yes...their recent actions do have a ring of desperation about them. But could also be explained away as normal cash raising. Melting ships doesn't bring in new money and selling at a discount for cash isn't unprecedented.

I'm not blind to what is happening.
I am not unaware of the possibilities.
That is why I haven't invested on the game. Assuming CIG are telling the truth, they don't need my money...and if they aren't, I wouldn't want to give it to them.

But what I have seen of the game doesn't necessitate malfeasance on the behalf of CIG or Chris Roberts. It could just as easily be explained away by a manager getting too excited by his own hype and making promises he can't keep simply because he gets carried away

I can accept this because my own time estimates on projects are often far off the mark. And have been for years.

That doesn't make it any more forgiveable, but I can understand it. Such things happen and if CR appears to be somewhat lacking in managerial skills, it seems to be Erin who is running the teams today, and from accounts doing a better job.

Now....if Derek Smart has irrefutable evidence saying otherwise, that may justify his opinion. I don't have that evidence, don't know its source and cannot judge its accuracy or reliability. That Derek Smart is convinced doesn't persuade me. Sorry to day this, but i'm as skeptical about Derek Smart as I am about CIG.

Barring any evidence to the contrary, I don't see much point in speculation.

I think CIG and CR are guilty of overhyping the game
I think they are guilty of continually underestimating the time required until a patch is ready for release
I think they are guilty of wasting time and funds thanks to poor management and poor communication
I think the funding model they have is questionable in that it provides investors who have no control and no input, while removing any business rationale to release the game.

But I currently think CIG is working towards release, that they want to deliver the game they have promised and that...given enough time and money...they are fully capable of realising their vision. And intend to.

And...barring creative accounting and inflated funds....they likely have enough of a reserve to deliver.

But I also think that the road to release is going to be longer and rockier than CIG suggest and I do not think the game will live up to expectations on release. It might still be a great game...but I think people are going to be disappointed because of all the hype.

Especially those who spent up to $15000 dollars preordering a $60 game and then realise they have nothing to do as they own all the ships
« Last Edit: December 11, 2016, 03:34:32 PM by Kyrt »

dsmart

  • Supreme Cmdr
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4909
    • Smart Speak Blog
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #167 on: December 12, 2016, 04:06:21 PM »
Right. But all things considered, remember that awhile back he said i) they had enough money to finish the game ii) if funding stopped, they had reserves to finish the game pitched
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Kyrt

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 176
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #168 on: December 12, 2016, 04:38:14 PM »
Right. But all things considered, remember that awhile back he said i) they had enough money to finish the game ii) if funding stopped, they had reserves to finish the game pitched

And while recent statements imply that is no longer the case, CIG is slso continuing its find raising. If they really are still generating $30+ million a year they should be able to generate the funding necessary to finish it.

Maybe there is "creative accounting" going on. Maybe their funding figures include "melting" or whatever. Maybe their expenses are very much greater than the guesstimates I've seen.

Maybe the information you have is accurate.

Maybe.

I think crowdfunding a project like this has some massive advantages....but CIG has shown that there are some major disadvantages. Their model of continual everlasting crowdfunding creates a revenue stream that actually rewards non release of the product and removes the oversight and accountability of more traditional funding models.

If CIGs revenue reports are close to accurate....they SHOULD be able to continue funding development for the next few years, and that SHOULD be long enough for them to develop and release the game.

Eight years of development considering they had to rewrite the engine and setup studios? Seems reasonable. Maybe a little quick even at 8 years but doable.

3.0 out in 2017....4.0 out Q2 2018....more patches and beta testing and a year to generate and hand craft the rest of the 100 systems brings us to mid 2019. Maybe hold off until November to take advantage of the holiday buzz? That'd be 8 years of development.

And yes....I don't see any reason not to count the years work and development before Kickstarter. That type of work counts for other games.

Even if CIG can't increase speed now that their toolkit is relatively developed, 8 years should be enough to allow them to release the game in some form.

They have the people to do it. They probably need more closer to release to cover marketing and server support but they should have enough people to develop the game.

But none of this means the game will be any good.

And it leaves the big question unanswered...will they have the money to do so? Unless the reported figures are a scam...they probably do.

dsmart

  • Supreme Cmdr
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4909
    • Smart Speak Blog
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #169 on: December 13, 2016, 10:56:01 AM »
Regardless of whether or not all of the speculation pans out, the end result is going to be that backers will never - ever - end up with the game they paid for and were expecting. I already gave the analogy of paying for a $100 box, and getting a $20 box - without a lid.

So it's largely irrelevant if they have the money or not to "finish" the game. Money can only get you so far. When you have insurmountable technical issues, no amount of money is going to solve them. And so far, I haven't seen any indication that they have crossed that threshold; otherwise they would have the framework of a "game" by now, instead of a glorified tech demo that's barely a mod.

Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Narrenbart

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 99
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #170 on: December 13, 2016, 11:31:01 AM »
[...] and a year to generate and hand craft the rest of the 100 systems [...]
That makes one complete system - Planets PG created - Objects placed on planets - Wildlife - SpaceStations - NPCs - Scripts - Missions - every 2.5 days.

The hype of this project is on an astronautic level ... every time I read the official forums I want to laugh and cry at the same time ... those peoples are so far off from reality that it hurts but CR loves it to much to be praised and play CEO and they will delay any gameplay stuff and development in general as much as they can to uphold hype and cash flow.
This "Project" will stay in alpha until the ship sinks and while it sinks they will sell more and more concept stuff to pay the wages for the CEO and his "10 top tier jobs" wife.

And when it's finally over and the uncountable companies have no money left, CR will move to the UK where his personal wealth will be untouchable.

Kyrt

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 176
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #171 on: December 13, 2016, 12:48:45 PM »
Regardless of whether or not all of the speculation pans out, the end result is going to be that backers will never - ever - end up with the game they paid for and were expecting. I already gave the analogy of paying for a $100 box, and getting a $20 box - without a lid.

So it's largely irrelevant if they have the money or not to "finish" the game. Money can only get you so far. When you have insurmountable technical issues, no amount of money is going to solve them. And so far, I haven't seen any indication that they have crossed that threshold; otherwise they would have the framework of a "game" by now, instead of a glorified tech demo that's barely a mod.

There's likely not much that CIG can't add to their game nor many problems (if any) that they can't solve...given time and money.

We've already seen their tech demoes...and of they don't have a framework for the game, they've at least demonstrated that they can create the separate elements.

Those separate elements can be joined together, polished and improved.

I can accept that this is oversimplifying the process, but at the same time I haven't seen any indication that the assertion that CIG have insurmountable technical problems is true.

Everything they've promised has been done before in other games....and that in itself shows they aren't insurmountable.

Technically speaking....I believe the game they envisage can be created. Mind you, I think a lot of the decisions they are making are somewhat questionable. CR appears to be creating more of a life simulator with his attention to detail....but the difference between life and a game is that a game is "fun". I keep expecting them to announce an arcade game within the game simply to provide a diversion. ;)

But I disagree with decisions made in ED and other hames as well.

Technically...I think the game is feasible.
The question is whether CIG has the funding and stability. If they are missing some of the funding they've bragged about, if their expenses are higher than suggested, if they lose key personnel, if backers lose faith....then the game could collapse.

As for delivering the game as promised....what was promised was SQ42. We've not seen much of that so we don't know what state it is in. I would presume,however, that it will use many of the same systems as SC. Which is why the fact CIG still hasn't locked down the basic mechanics and flight model is problematic, especially given the potential knockon effect on ship design.

CIG still has a lot of work to do. I anticipate another 3 years of development...IF CIG want to deliver the game they want to. That won't be the Kickstarter game. Will they deliver the game everyone expects and wants?

Which is a FP MMORPG taking place over 150 handcrafted systems with FPS and Wing Commander style combat?

I think they can deliver that game. I think that CIG will need to skimp a fair bit of detail to make their release in anything less than three years.


dsmart

  • Supreme Cmdr
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4909
    • Smart Speak Blog
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #172 on: December 13, 2016, 02:00:28 PM »
And when it's finally over and the uncountable companies have no money left, CR will move to the UK where his personal wealth will be untouchable.

That's precisely what I think will happen. Which is pretty much why F42 in UK and GER are the larger studios; which are building the game. Both of the US studios are completely expendable.



There's likely not much that CIG can't add to their game nor many problems (if any) that they can't solve...given time and money.

We've already seen their tech demoes...and of they don't have a framework for the game, they've at least demonstrated that they can create the separate elements.

Those separate elements can be joined together, polished and improved.

I can accept that this is oversimplifying the process, but at the same time I haven't seen any indication that the assertion that CIG have insurmountable technical problems is true.

Everything they've promised has been done before in other games....and that in itself shows they aren't insurmountable.

Technically speaking....I believe the game they envisage can be created.

Technically...I think the game is feasible.

CIG still has a lot of work to do. I anticipate another 3 years of development...IF CIG want to deliver the game they want to. That won't be the Kickstarter game. Will they deliver the game everyone expects and wants?

Which is a FP MMORPG taking place over 150 handcrafted systems with FPS and Wing Commander style combat?

I think they can deliver that game. I think that CIG will need to skimp a fair bit of detail to make their release in anything less than three years.

No, none of that is going to happen. Clearly money isn't the problem, or they would have built it by now. Even if we accept that the funding chart is 100% accurate, also while compensating for loans, investor amounts etc, they've had over $150 million; enough to build two triple-A games. They haven't built either one. And what's astonishing is that nothing they've built or pitched, is original. It's all been done before. But yet still, they can't seem to build it.

I have no cause to revise my opinion that the game will ever be completed, let alone shipped in any form resembling what they pitched. They've already proven me right when I said they simply couldn't build the game pitched. And not even with $150 million.

Anyone who thinks they stand any chance of shipping a finished game - even an MVP - isn't paying attention. All the signs pointing to this project amounting to a catastrophic failure, are all there.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2016, 02:07:38 PM by dsmart »
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Kyrt

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 176
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #173 on: December 13, 2016, 03:41:31 PM »
No, none of that is going to happen. Clearly money isn't the problem, or they would have built it by now.

CIG are building a game that in theory is larger in scope and features than titles such as GTA5.
They are doing so with less money....with fewer developers...and those developers appear to have less experience than other studios.
They started with one studio and have had to effectively develop the tools they need to build the game.

A smaller developer with a need to develop not only the game but its toolkit won't have written a game in the five years a larger, more experienced, better resourced team might expect to take.

CIG has problems in that they underestimated the work and time required to develop the game and the toolkit needed to develop it. They have problems in that they have a funding model that I find dubious...it has advantages but some major drawbacks as well.

And worst...they keep giving everyone vastly over optimistic release dates.
And yes, at least part of that is due to marketing and the need to maintain excitement.

Money...so long as their funding announcements are accurate...isn't going to be an issue. The issue is trying to develop a game with fewer resources and a more inexperienced team than other AAA development teams. That means development will take longer and the coding might not be as efficient. Not that it can't be done.

Money and funding will buy them the time they need to develop the game.

Quote
Even if we accept that the funding chart is 100% accurate, also while compensating for loans, investor amounts etc, they've had over $150 million; enough to build two triple-A games. They haven't built either one. And what's astonishing is that nothing they've built or pitched, is original. It's all been done before. But yet still, they can't seem to build it.

And given the information available....and your own arguments...I personally wouldn't expect them to have it built yet. Your own argument is that they have spent...wasted...a lot of money effectively rebuilding CryEngine. How long did that take?

The question then isn't what sort of development we might see after five years, but what sort of development and progress we might see after 2.

Quote
I have no cause to revise my opinion that the game will ever be completed, let alone shipped in any form resembling what they pitched. They've already proven me right when I said they simply couldn't build the game pitched. And not even with $150 million.

And by and large, CIG seem to agree with you. They have been very public about expanding their scope. And their backers know this.

I think they would have been better developing a custom engine, and then developing Squadron 42 and then moving onto Star Citizen...I think CIG have made some VERY questionable decisions wrt the game development

But you are arguing something CIG have already stated. They WON'T be delivering the game as pitched.

Quote
All the signs pointing to this project amounting to a catastrophic failure, are all there.

Yes. There are signs. I think you've made some very good points...but that you also overstate them. I think you and others have pointed out problems with CIGs communications with the backers and development. I can fully agree that if different decisions had been made...that if CIG had gone for a custom engine or if they'd staggered development of SC and S42 and so on...that they very likely would have more demonstrable progress than has currently been shown. I think that they have wasted time and resources and millions because of these issues and bad decisions and poor management.

But they have made some progress. They have produced some playable modules. Some ships and art assests have been produced. The engine and other tools have been created or modified. Not as much progress as they should have made...but still progress.

CR started this in 2011. He went for a Kickstarter on 2012. He promised a release in 2014...which was missed....but has since spent a large amount of time developing the game toolkits and engines. And yes....CIG have spent a lot of effort and time on fundraising and weekly videos.

I would expect progress to be slow under these circumstances...and yes, I suspect CR isn't that great a manager; at best, his decade outside the industry left him unaware of modern development schedules.

That CIG has little to show after 5 years isn't a surprise.
That they have wasted time and squandered money isn't really in question.
That there has been poor communication and bad management seems self evident.
That their funding model is somewhat dubious is stating the obvious.

But leaving aside your hyperbole, there isn't much to suggest CIG won't try to release the game they want. So long as the funding keeps up, they'll be able to take the time to solve any technical issue.

Star Citizen isn't a game that could be developed under a traditional model. It could never make a profit. Players won't spend $15000 on a boxed game.

So the only question is whether or not funding will continue, and at what level.

If it does, then CIG can finish the game. And if it doesn't...they could still potentially release a cut down version.

Now...you might have sources which give you a more accurate insight into CIG. If and when that information becomes public, I could change my mind.

But right now...it appears as if you are overstating the problems, just as CIG are understating them. But essentially...it appears as if CIG are making a serious effort to develop the game snd IF they keep up funding we can expect it to be released. Just in 2019 after 8 years development instead of 2014 after 3

Narrenbart

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 99
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #174 on: December 13, 2016, 03:48:36 PM »
[...] If it does, then CIG can finish the game. And if it doesn't...they could still potentially release a cut down version. [...]
In this case I am very happy not living near any CIG offices, the whole amount of spent money and hyped dreams has created some very radical fanboys.

dsmart

  • Supreme Cmdr
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4909
    • Smart Speak Blog
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #175 on: December 13, 2016, 05:41:55 PM »
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Ash

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 0
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #176 on: December 13, 2016, 05:50:04 PM »

CIG are building a game that in theory is larger in scope and features than titles such as GTA5.
They are doing so with less money....with fewer developers...and those developers appear to have less experience than other studios.
They started with one studio and have had to effectively develop the tools they need to build the game.

I see this time and again, and it now false. If you take development costs alone SC is now the joint second most expensive game ever to produce. It still number 6 if you throw other games marketing budgets into account.


Kyrt

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 176
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #177 on: December 13, 2016, 06:41:38 PM »
I see this time and again, and it now false. If you take development costs alone SC is now the joint second most expensive game ever to produce. It still number 6 if you throw other games marketing budgets into account.

That CIG report they have raised $130+ million does not mean they have spent $130+ million.

Further...it is also a bit misleading.

Of the money they have spent....they are supporting four studios. They have wasted what must be millions on third party contractors whose work they effectively threw out. They have hired major stars for voiceovers, employed huge amount of motion capture and so on.

They have also rewritten CryEngine which would have taken time and effort and money. Held conventions. Made video diaries. And so on.

Put simply....compare the situation of CIG with that of another studio. Say GTA5 since a lot of people use that comparison.

GTA5 was developed by Rockstar over 5 years, used three different engines, involved work by over 1000 people at multiple locations around the world and cost $140 million to develop and about as much again to market. This team...averaging about 250 developers a year for 5 years...was experienced and making use of established well developed engines and were engaged in a project of a type they were slready familiar with.

CIG have less money. So far.
Their development team is less experienced and hasn't built this type of game
Their development team is smaller
Their engine was unsuited and far from optimal for this type of game and needed a substantial amount of reworking
They are now working on "two" games...albeit ones with a very high degree of linkage.

Rockstar is believed to have spent $140 million over 5 years.
CIG have estimated to have spent $60-$80 million over 4 years...possibly more given the factors above. Much of they are known to have done....cutscenes, the engine, ships, conventions, hiring actors, motion capture, etc...is not necessarily development that would show a lot of onscreen gaming action. They would need the engine developed first.

So...they are trying to do more with less. That development has been slower than a game such as GTA5 is not surprising.

This...IMO...is a result of what appears to be poor management and communication, with decisions made that...although reasonable at the time...have hindered the products development.

They are a new studio led by someone who has been out of the industry for a decade. Mistakes are to be expected.

Of course, one could also argue that they have spent more on development. That they have spent over $100 million. Rockstar managed that sort of expenditure...no reason CIG can't have matched them.

My own thinking is simple.

Starting with an experienced team and a working toolset (yes, the engines were improved) it took Rockstar 5 years and $140million to develop GTA5.
CIG started with a botched engine, a small inexperienced team, no working toolkit and want a game grander in scope and scale.

I think they have wasted time and money. I think they should have gone with a custom engine once their vision and funding expanded. But having to develop the toolkit needed to develop the game would obviously slow them down. (Whether they needed to do so is another question)

So...if we assume the toolkit is now effectively finished (barring issues such as the netcode) then where CIG are NOW is probably equivalent to where Rockstar were in Year 2 of GTA5s development.

Either way....so long as CIG can continue to raise funds, it can continue to develop. So long as it can the developers it can work around any technical issue that comes up. As others have said, there is no 'impossible'...it's only whether it is cost/time effective to do. And CIG don't seem to care in that regard.

If the estimates are correct...Rockstar spent about $30 million a year on GTA5. CIG is raising about that much and their team was much smaller the first couple of years, allowing them to create a buffer. Its possible that buffer has gone...also possible they still have $50-70 million left.

Of course, CIG still have marketing to do and servers to set up. Both of which could be expensive. Especially since they need to market two games.

But the point bring made is that we can't judge the degree of progress simply from the amount raised. There are too many variables and IMO....given CIGs lack of experience and the problems discussed so far, including the engine...this is a game that will require at least 8 years to develop. Maybe less if CIG skimp on various systems and assets. And as such isn't likely to have mich visible sign of progress at this date.

The 3.x patches will add and expand the basic in game mechanics
The 4.x patches will presumably polish all this and add content, systems, ships, etc
Add in time for testing and fixing...easily another 3 years work.


« Last Edit: December 14, 2016, 04:16:35 AM by Kyrt »

Lochness_Hamster

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 1
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #178 on: December 13, 2016, 07:40:32 PM »
As my first post here FAU - is a Cunt

 :woof:

Van Steiza

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 1
Re: Star Citizen - The E.L.E.
« Reply #179 on: December 14, 2016, 01:28:09 AM »
This is hilarious. 2.6 in action

https://fat.gfycat.com/HealthyUniformLadybird.webm

Derek this is not 2.6, it is the current PU. Please if your going to post things like this at least make sure it's correct.

You should know this is from the 2.5(PU) considering you have access to the PTU as you yourself said.

 

 

SMF spam blocked by CleanTalk