Author Topic: Star Citizen General BS  (Read 804568 times)

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #480 on: July 24, 2017, 04:37:55 PM »
They used the company assets to leverage the best possible interest rate, in fact that was how and why it makes sense to do it.

FALSE. And you have NO supporting evidence of that.

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They got a fraction above Bank of England base rates so the lender makes money and CIG get a net save.

FALSE. And you have NO supporting evidence of that.

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The larger and safer the collateral, the lower the rate the bank charges, less risk of not getting their money back. It's the same reason why those with a poor credit rating get bad interest rates on lending. It's more risky.

FALSE. And you have NO supporting evidence of that.

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Those things you mentioned prove no such thing. Any company needs cash flow for reasons other than being about to collapse. Getting contracts for renting premises, for example, is impossible without demonstrable income streams.

A company with a balance sheet that's a going concern, would NEVER need to leverage ALL of its assets in order to get a loan. A small loan at that.

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I remember when it was 'guaranteed' CIG wouldn't last 2 to 3 months and that was well over 18 months ago.

This again? Do you even know how "analysis" works? It's dependent on data at hand and conditions at time of analysis. Look it up.

And if you guys weren't still giving them money, do you even think they would be around today? That's precisely how Sunk Cost Fallacy works.

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It was also claimed there wouldn't be any more citizencons after last year but there's one coming up quite soon. It's recently been claimed this will be their last Gamescom. I'm sensing a pattern. One of made up scaremongering.

See above

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How many more times will Derek claim they're out of money before you realise he doesn't have a damn clue how much money they have? He's been doing it for years. They're still going. Inferring your own reasons for business practices just shows your confirmation bias.

Nobody has a "damn clue" how much money they have. Not even the backers who DO have a right to know.
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #481 on: July 24, 2017, 04:42:47 PM »
Ok, Derek's got a book to write which he can't publish if the game gets released and becomes a hit. But since that final release won't happen anytime soon (and I'm sure we all can agree on that), he'll either turn out to be right, or he'll have another decade or two of time to think about an alternative source of income until the game actually gets released. So I'm sure he's not too stressed out either.

My book has nothing to do with the success or failure of the project. The book contains the many failings, and accurately documents all the promises, deceits, lies, and even things that aren't public. The ONLY reason why I am not publishing it until the final curtain, is because even though it's an e-book (with a coffee table print option), I won't want to go back and update it to match how things turned out. e.g. From what I know, I fully expect someone to go to jail over this project failing. Sure I can finish and publish my book after the collapse or "release", but I would very much like to add who went to jail, why, and how.

There is so much that isn't even public knowledge yet, that the few people who have read the manuscript, keep asking me why I don't just publish it now, and update it later. I don't want to do that because I want Chris Roberts to be the manufacturer the project's demise.
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #482 on: July 24, 2017, 04:45:09 PM »
What do you think about the analysis of OldSchoolCmdr ?

https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/68neg4/potential_backer_with_questions/dh8ww71/

What is supposed to be at that link? I only see an argument with Jester86, the mod of  /r/dereksmart
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #483 on: July 24, 2017, 04:47:13 PM »
Yikes. It's almost as if I was right when I said the schedule was bullshit and they haven't updated the 08/25 release date two weeks in a row because of on-going sales.

We won't start Evocati this week

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Good morning ETF!
We've entered the start of the Production Schedule's range for 3.0 Evocati testing. We won't start this week, and it's admittedly too early to know whether we'll be able to go next week. Most of you have been around long enough to know that's always a gametime decision anyway.   

All the same, we have been working diligently on the inclusion/exclusion process since late last week to make sure the right files are in (and wrong files are kept out). This is a necessary process in building a new branch, and historically it has taken about three weeks once we've started this process to get a build to Evocati. Might be a bit longer considering the scope of 3.0, and we'll only find out as we go along.

There are quite a few blockers to remedy before we go to Evocati, such as completing UI, restoring readouts on many HUDs, crashes, etc. The good news is that many teams are in their final stretches of their feature tasks, with quite a few others already done, and we're in deep on bugfixing.

I'll make sure to start providing regular updates, but in the meantime, have a great weekend ETF!

Will "Soulcrusher" Leverett
Director of Player Relations
Avocado Enthusiast



Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

Motto

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #484 on: July 24, 2017, 05:25:20 PM »
Oh boy oh boy oh boy..... hang on to everything you got boys, but not your wallet of course, because it's is almost here now. Any day now, we could publish something spectacular that you have never seen before. We don't know yet what it'll be exactly and we also don't know what will be in it and we also don't know when we'll release it and we also don't know what we'll still need to do and we also don't know when we'll do it all but that doesn't matter because it will be fantastic. And we also know that everything you have paid for and waited for all those years won't be in it. And even if it is in it, it probably won't work. To fix that, we need more money. So don't miss out on another disappointing thing and buy something. Heck, just give us the money and don't ask for anything in return because you know that's all you're going to get. Nothing. So whatsjawiatinfor? Throw in your money and expect nothing in return. Just remember, the nothing in return is here any day now....

Director of Player Relations  :vince:

When two backers are getting into a relation, they need him to show the way. The way out, because they were to blind to do it in time...
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 05:28:57 PM by Motto »

nightfire

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #485 on: July 24, 2017, 09:23:44 PM »
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Most of you have been around long enough to know that's always a gametime decision anyway.

Yeah, like, since 2012  :cripes: No need to explain "gametime decisions" to us anymore  :what:

nightfire

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #486 on: July 24, 2017, 09:29:08 PM »
The book contains the many failings, and accurately documents all the promises, deceits, lies, and even things that aren't public. The ONLY reason why I am not publishing it until the final curtain, is because even though it's an e-book (with a coffee table print option)
Given the sheer amount of what has happened, I’ll have to go with the e-book. Unless the print option also includes the cast concrete coffee table to match  :laugh:

Serendipity

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #487 on: July 24, 2017, 11:15:22 PM »
They used the company assets to leverage the best possible interest rate, in fact that was how and why it makes sense to do it.

FALSE. And you have NO supporting evidence of that.

Quote
They got a fraction above Bank of England base rates so the lender makes money and CIG get a net save.

FALSE. And you have NO supporting evidence of that.

Quote
The larger and safer the collateral, the lower the rate the bank charges, less risk of not getting their money back. It's the same reason why those with a poor credit rating get bad interest rates on lending. It's more risky.

FALSE. And you have NO supporting evidence of that.

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Those things you mentioned prove no such thing. Any company needs cash flow for reasons other than being about to collapse. Getting contracts for renting premises, for example, is impossible without demonstrable income streams.

A company with a balance sheet that's a going concern, would NEVER need to leverage ALL of its assets in order to get a loan. A small loan at that.

Quote
I remember when it was 'guaranteed' CIG wouldn't last 2 to 3 months and that was well over 18 months ago.

This again? Do you even know how "analysis" works? It's dependent on data at hand and conditions at time of analysis. Look it up.

And if you guys weren't still giving them money, do you even think they would be around today? That's precisely how Sunk Cost Fallacy works.

Quote
It was also claimed there wouldn't be any more citizencons after last year but there's one coming up quite soon. It's recently been claimed this will be their last Gamescom. I'm sensing a pattern. One of made up scaremongering.

See above

Quote
How many more times will Derek claim they're out of money before you realise he doesn't have a damn clue how much money they have? He's been doing it for years. They're still going. Inferring your own reasons for business practices just shows your confirmation bias.

Nobody has a "damn clue" how much money they have. Not even the backers who DO have a right to know.

I'm sorry but it's not false and I do have evidence to support that.

"Generally, when a loan is secured by collateral, the risk of default by the borrower decreases. For example, a loan secured by a car typically has a lower interest rate than an unsecured loan, such as credit card debt. Also, the more valuable the collateral, the lower the risk."

From: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications/community-dividend/how-do-lenders-set-interest-rates-on-loans

Ortwin's forum post is evidence, you may not believe him but that's irrelevant to the fact it exists as evidence. They didn't 'need to' as you put it, it saved money though so they did it. Is it a bad thing to save money?

In respect to to your analysis of the project and your predictions of financial collapse I find it very strange that you failed to notice them getting 30+million dollars a year for the last few years in a row. That's some pretty damn poor analysis. Did you honestly think your tweet and blog storm would halt the funding in any appreciable way or did your 'analysis' fail to take into account historical levels of funding? Either way, embarrassing.

If you're not sure of your analysis then perhaps you shouldn't 'guarantee' things off of the back of them? You certainly sounded sure the collapse was imminent...2 years ago.

Backers are not entitled to know how much money they have left, that's a very strange thing to say. They are entitled to full financial disclosure should production of the game stop. This hasn't happened, so no financial disclosure.

"Accordingly, you agree that any unearned portion of your Pledge shall not be refundable until and unless RSI has ceased development and failed to deliver the relevant pledge items and/or the Game to you."

Now I'm fully aware they've changed the ToS, as is perfectly normal, over time but that part has stayed the same, minus the estimated delivery date. It's only ever been should development cease that those clauses kick in.

Let us see how long they last, let us see if your current predictions are better than your previous, somewhat laughable, attempts. I can stick around a while. It's fun here.

nightfire

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #488 on: July 25, 2017, 12:07:13 AM »
Ortwin's forum post is evidence, you may not believe him but that's irrelevant to the fact it exists as evidence.

 :lol: Seriously? Sorry, Ortwin’s post is not „evidence“; it’s merely a claim, an assertion. And calling the supposed existence of evidence a fact does not make the evidence itself a fact.

„Evidence“ would be Ortwin disclosing CIG's internal documents relating to the loan decision, such as the financial calculations which demonstrated possible savings by taking out a loan, as well as the actual loan and interest rate conditions offered by the banks they contacted for this matter. As long as we don’t get see hard facts like these, Ortwin’s word is worth nothing. Or, as the saying goes: „show, don’t tell“.

Motto

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #489 on: July 25, 2017, 12:49:20 AM »
Where is the evidence that they indeed have collected over 150 mil. over the past years? The only figure made public is the counter on their website. Fact chance that one is correct.

Serendipity

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #490 on: July 25, 2017, 02:17:45 AM »
Where is the evidence that they indeed have collected over 150 mil. over the past years? The only figure made public is the counter on their website. Fact chance that one is correct.

Where else have they got the money to fund four studios and 300+ employees? People are getting paid. Where do you think the money for that has come from?

Ortwin's forum post is evidence, you may not believe him but that's irrelevant to the fact it exists as evidence.

 :lol: Seriously? Sorry, Ortwin’s post is not „evidence“; it’s merely a claim, an assertion. And calling the supposed existence of evidence a fact does not make the evidence itself a fact.

„Evidence“ would be Ortwin disclosing CIG's internal documents relating to the loan decision, such as the financial calculations which demonstrated possible savings by taking out a loan, as well as the actual loan and interest rate conditions offered by the banks they contacted for this matter. As long as we don’t get see hard facts like these, Ortwin’s word is worth nothing. Or, as the saying goes: „show, don’t tell“.

So a publicly posted claim from the person who brokered the deal is somehow less believable than a totally unsupported proposition from a direct competitor who has stated he's trying 'burn them all down' before staging a 2 year hate and harassment campaign?

Ok, you've buttered your bread. Let's see which side ends up hitting the carpet.

helimoth

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #491 on: July 25, 2017, 02:22:27 AM »

Ok, you've buttered your bread. Let's see which side ends up hitting the carpet.

Ah wait and see - the undeniable forte of the Star Citizen backer. You can wait and see all you want but I don't need to wait and I've easily seen enough. I guess I'm just less naive than you idk but that's not your fault.

Serendipity

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #492 on: July 25, 2017, 02:36:15 AM »

Ok, you've buttered your bread. Let's see which side ends up hitting the carpet.

Ah wait and see - the undeniable forte of the Star Citizen backer. You can wait and see all you want but I don't need to wait and I've easily seen enough. I guess I'm just less naive than you idk but that's not your fault.

That's all we can do. They're either going to pull it off in a way that is perceived as success or they're not. I'm happy to wait. You're not. Fair enough. I'm not making stuff up to suit my narrative though. I'm no whale. I'm no idiot, blinded by emotions either. Que Sera Sera.

The evidence I see is a game getting made, slowly, but it's happening. It's a game I think I'd enjoy playing and I pre purchased knowing full well I might not get my dream game or any game. I've backed over 30 kick-started games. Some good, some bad, some gone forever. It's a risk I was happy to take.

I'm not going to try to tell you the game will be amazing or anything, I don't know what's going to happen and I won't make absolute statements about an unknown. Waiting is all we got. So I shall wait...and wait...and wait some more. I've got plenty of other games to play.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #493 on: July 25, 2017, 07:33:40 AM »
I'm sorry but it's not false and I do have evidence to support that.

No you don't.

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"Generally, when a loan is secured by collateral, the risk of default by the borrower decreases. For example, a loan secured by a car typically has a lower interest rate than an unsecured loan, such as credit card debt. Also, the more valuable the collateral, the lower the risk."

That's NOT evidence pertaining to the F42-UK loan.

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Ortwin's forum post is evidence, you may not believe him but that's irrelevant to the fact it exists as evidence.

LOL!!! You can't be serious. That's NOT how evidence works.

That's a company statement, by an exec who has every reason to LIE to backers, as they have been doing since the start of this project.

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In respect to to your analysis of the project and your predictions of financial collapse I find it very strange that you failed to notice them getting 30+million dollars a year for the last few years in a row. That's some pretty damn poor analysis. Did you honestly think your tweet and blog storm would halt the funding in any appreciable way or did your 'analysis' fail to take into account historical levels of funding? Either way, embarrassing.

You see, that's the mistake that you guys keep making. Nobody CARES about how much money lunatics stuck in Sunk Cost Fallacy, give them. All we care about is whether or not they have the capacity and capability to DELIVER the games promised. So far, there is NO EVIDENCE to support the argument that they DO.

In fact, speaking of analysis, back in July 2015 I said that there is no way in hell they could ever hope to develop and deliver the game as pitched, let alone for less than $150M, and without a capable engine.

So far, THREE of those have been proven to be true, as EVIDENCED by the fact that they have chopped of parts of what was promised, they haven't delivered 15% of what was promised, they are now at $155M with neither of the TWO games delivered, and they've switched engines.

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If you're not sure of your analysis then perhaps you shouldn't 'guarantee' things off of the back of them? You certainly sounded sure the collapse was imminent...2 years ago.

Look up the word "analysis", then come back and let's have a discussion about how that works, and why the words "sure", "certainty" etc never appear in that definition or premise.

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Backers are not entitled to know how much money they have left, that's a very strange thing to say. They are entitled to full financial disclosure should production of the game stop. This hasn't happened, so no financial disclosure.

Go back and read the ToS (all versions of it).

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Now I'm fully aware they've changed the ToS, as is perfectly normal,

There is NOTHING that's "perfectly normal" about changing a ToS which takes away rights that backers once had. Again, you can't be serious.

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Let us see how long they last, let us see if your current predictions are better than your previous, somewhat laughable, attempts. I can stick around a while. It's fun here.

As I said before, we'll see. The good thing is that this isn't Reddit, where you guys can shout down people, down vote them etc. Everything posted here, is based on reasonable discussions and exchange; all of which we can call up at any time to show who was right, wrong etc.

I know - with unflinching certainty - that I am right about the fate of the project. It's only a matter of time. And if you guys weren't still funding it, anyone with common sense, and the capacity to use it, would know that it would have collapsed by now if a group of whales weren't still funding it. The most glaring evidence of that is as of this writing, at $155M in funding, neither game is delivered, though it was all fully funded and over-scoped back in Nov 2014, to the tune of $65M. And now it's 2.9 years later + $90M over budget. Yeah, because that's normal.
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

dsmart

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Re: Star Citizen - The Game
« Reply #494 on: July 25, 2017, 07:43:38 AM »
Where is the evidence that they indeed have collected over 150 mil. over the past years? The only figure made public is the counter on their website. Fact chance that one is correct.

Yes that's another thing that they keep going on about. It's not evidence. It's data provided by CIG. A company that has EVERY reason to lie about it, for marketing purposes, and in order to show health in the project. Which is what keeps whales throwing money at it.

From the Google Sheet you can see what they "claim" to be making each month. It's not evidence. It's data pulled directly from CIG and which doesn't take into account subscriptions, loans, investment amounts, refunds. So, right off the bat, we know it's NOT accurate. And that's something that sources who would know, have said to me and others (media), time and time again.

And in fact, whale fatigue is already setting in. Take a look at the funding trends for 2016, compared to 2017, and it's easy to see that they are going to raise much less than the year before. Which is why they're now pulling out all the stops for 3.0 at GamesCom and CitizenCon. Even the metrics for the recent Nox and Cyclone sales, are not the blockbusters they were supposed to be, even with 3.0 coming.
Star Citizen isn't a game. It's a TV show about a bunch of characters making a game. It's basically "This is Spinal Tap" - except people think the band is real.

 

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